The latest polls from The New York Times and Siena College reveal that former President Donald Trump has taken the lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in three key Sun Belt states.
Trump holds a 5-point advantage in Arizona, leading 50% to 45% among likely voters. In Georgia, he leads by 4 points, with 49% support to Harris’s 45%. In North Carolina, Trump’s lead is slimmer, at 49% to 47%.
These results mark a reversal from the previous month’s polls, where Harris was ahead or tied with Trump in these states.
Her support appears to have slightly dropped since early August, after President Biden announced he would not be running for re-election, and Harris became the Democratic candidate.
In Arizona, Trump now leads 49% to 45% among registered voters, a significant shift from last month when Harris led by the same margin.
Similarly, Trump has gained ground in Georgia, where he now leads 48% to 44%, up from a tied race last month.
North Carolina shows a narrower change, with Trump now leading 48% to 47%, whereas Harris led last month.
The pollsters noted that while Trump’s leads in these battleground states are critical for his path to the White House, Harris could still win the election even if she loses these states, though it would be challenging.
Polling averages from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill confirm a tight race in these states, with Trump holding a slim margin of 0.1 percentage points in Arizona and Georgia, and 0.5 percentage points in North Carolina.
The polls, conducted from Sept. 17-21, 2024, surveyed over 700 registered voters in each state, with margins of error ranging from 4.2 to 4.6 percentage points.