In a recent appearance at Slover Library in Norfolk, Dr. Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, shared his insights on the upcoming 2024 election. During a one-on-one interview with 13News Now, Sabato offered his analysis of the current political landscape, focusing on Virginia and the swing state of North Carolina.
Sabato downplayed the significance of polls showing Vice President Kamala Harris with an 11-point lead over former President Donald Trump in Virginia, explaining that the state is no longer a competitive battleground.
He noted that while Virginia has shifted toward a Lean Democratic or Likely Democratic state, this change is largely attributed to the growth of Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads as Democratic strongholds.
Despite the state’s Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin, Sabato believes Virginia will remain solidly Democratic in this presidential election.
Regarding North Carolina, Sabato acknowledged that the state is much closer and remains a true swing state. He gave a slight edge to Trump but noted that recent disruptions caused by Hurricane Helene could impact conservative voter turnout.
Additionally, he pointed to misinformation surrounding FEMA’s response in North Carolina as a factor that could influence voter sentiment, though he expressed skepticism about its potential to shift the election significantly.
Sabato also commented on Harris’s decision to distinguish herself from President Biden, stating that Biden’s ongoing unpopularity has been a challenge for her campaign. Lastly, he lamented the cancellation of the second debate between Harris and Trump, suggesting that it was a missed opportunity for both campaigns.