In Arizona’s upcoming U.S. Senate race, Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego is attempting to secure a victory by appealing to an unusual group of voters those who support Donald Trump for president but are reluctant to vote for his close ally, Republican candidate Kari Lake.
Both Gallego and Lake are targeting undecided Republicans, particularly ticket-splitters who are becoming rare in an era of heightened partisan loyalty.
However, they may be crucial in determining which party controls the Senate.
Gallego’s strategy hinges on attracting voters like Winfield Morris, a Republican farmer and rancher who plans to vote for Trump but doesn’t support Lake.
Morris, who opposed Trump in the GOP primary and supported other Republicans, appreciates Gallego’s military background and is considering voting for him.
Like many Republicans in Arizona, Morris is turned off by Lake’s attacks on the late Sen. John McCain during her previous gubernatorial campaign.
Arizona has become a critical battleground for Democrats, who have won the last three Senate races by narrow margins, often relying on ticket-splitting voters.
Gallego’s approach is modeled after Democratic Senator Mark Kelly’s 2020 win, where Kelly secured a significant number of voters who backed Trump for president but did not support the GOP Senate candidate.
Gallego is hoping to replicate this strategy by appealing to Republican voters dissatisfied with Lake’s candidacy.
Both candidates are emphasizing border security in their ads, reflecting the importance of this issue to Arizona voters.
Lake has focused almost exclusively on border-related messaging, while Gallego has taken a more balanced approach, even criticizing the Biden administration’s handling of the border.
Gallego has also sought to showcase his bipartisan appeal, highlighting endorsements from Republicans, including members of law enforcement, while Lake continues to promote Trump’s endorsement.
The race is also shaped by significant campaign spending, with Democrats outspending Republicans by a wide margin, giving Gallego a financial edge in reaching undecided voters.
Despite the challenges, Lake is counting on Trump’s support to energize her base, while Gallego is banking on a coalition of Democrats, independents, and disaffected Republicans to deliver a fourth straight Senate victory for Democrats in Arizona.